Sample edition · October 8, 2026. This illustrated web-only example shows The Oracle’s twice-weekly format. All odds below are historical snapshots for this sample, not live quotes.
The lead
CLARITY needs completed enactment
The Polymarket contract asks whether H.R. 3633 becomes law before its deadline. Progress through a committee or a favorable headline is not enough to meet that condition.
Seven-day odds history
The odds: The Polymarket Yes outcome was 4.9% at the chart’s last observation, October 8, 2026, at 18:00:52 UTC. That is up 0.05 percentage points from 4.85% on October 1 at 19:00:23 UTC. The 167 observations ranged from 4.65% to 5.15%, showing little change across the window. The market was open when checked on October 8.
Resolution: The stated rule requires passage by both chambers of Congress and a presidential signature by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 p.m. ET. Otherwise, the contract resolves No. The listed resolution source is Congress.gov.
What to watch: Completed legislative steps and the remaining calendar, rather than interpreting negotiations as enactment.
Read CryptoSlate’s market coverage · View the contract and full rules · Check the official bill record
Odds snapshot
Bitcoin: the $90,000 threshold
CryptoSlate displayed 54% for the $90,000 upside contract, last synced October 8 at 17:37 UTC. This is a threshold-event contract, not a forecast of the year-end closing price. Polymarket lists Binance BTC/USDT as its resolution source; the precise qualifying-price rules remain part of the contract.
Ethereum: the $3,000 threshold
CryptoSlate displayed 35.5% for the $3,000 upside contract, last synced October 8 at 17:53 UTC. Multiple price thresholds can be reached along one price path, so these contracts should not be added together as mutually exclusive outcomes. The listed event deadline is January 1, 2027, at 05:00 UTC.
Watch next
Check the platform, snapshot time, market status, deadline, and settlement source together. A change in odds is meaningful only against a comparable earlier snapshot.
These are market-implied probabilities, not guarantees or trading recommendations. This sample links to market information without referral codes; platform access varies by jurisdiction.
The CryptoSlate team